Doug Verley, Independent Chairman, Business Advisor, Coach and SME Specialist, Perth and Western Australia

Small-to-Medium Business Owners & Leaders, No KPIs? Then You’re Probably Running on WTFs – What’s The Forecast? (Business Improvement Perth)

Are you genuinely managing business performance—or relying on gut feel, last month’s P&L and the bank balance? Discover how the right KPIs, dashboards and forecasts can expose problems early, strengthen accountability and improve SME performance.

Business Improvement Perth should not begin with vague statements such as “we seem busy”, “sales feel pretty good”, “the bank balance looks okay”, or my personal favourites:

“I think we’re doing alright.” or better yet “She’ll be right mate.”

That is not performance management.

That is hope with an accounting system attached.

I have walked into businesses where the owner can tell me exactly what is happening operationally today, which customer complained, which employee is off sick, which truck broke down, which quote needs chasing, but cannot readily tell me:

  • whether gross margin is improving or deteriorating;
  • which customers, products or divisions are genuinely profitable;
  • whether labour productivity is improving;
  • what the qualified sales pipeline looks like;
  • where cash will be in 13 weeks;
  • whether debtor days are increasing;
  • whether the business will achieve its annual EBIT target;
  • or what the latest forecast says.

In other words:

No meaningful KPIs. No reliable dashboard. No rolling forecast.

Just WTFs:

What’s The Forecast?

Throughout almost four decades of big corporate, being a start-up entrepreneur, and advising businesses across Australia and internationally, I have learnt that one of the clearest differences between businesses that are professionally managed and those being run largely by instinct is their ability to identify, measure, interpret and act upon the few numbers that genuinely drive performance.

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) should not be corporate bureaucracy.

They should be the instrument panel of your business.

And if you are flying without instruments, do not be surprised when you discover the mountain only after you hit it.

Table of Contents

  • What Exactly Is a KPI, and What Is It Not?
  • Business Improvement Perth: If You Cannot See Performance, You Cannot Manage It
  • Stop Confusing KPIs with a Monthly P&L
  • The Dangerous Difference Between Lagging and Leading Indicators
  • Business Improvement Perth: Start with Strategy, Not a Spreadsheet Full of Numbers
  • The Business Performance Chain: Drivers, KPIs and Outcomes
  • Financial KPIs: Revenue Alone Tells You Almost Nothing
  • Sales and Marketing KPIs: Measure the Funnel Before Revenue Disappears
  • Operational KPIs: Where Margin Is Often Won or Lost
  • People and Leadership KPIs: Your Workforce Is Not an Unmeasurable Variable
  • Cash-Flow KPIs: Profit Does Not Mean You Can Pay the Bills
  • WTF, What’s The Forecast? Stop Managing Through the Rear-View Mirror
  • Dashboards, Governance and Accountability
  • The KPI Traps That Make Measurement Useless
  • Practical Recommendations for SME Owners and Leaders
  • Key Takeaways
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Conclusion

What Exactly Is a KPI, and What Is It Not?

A Key Performance Indicator, or KPI, is a measurable indicator used to assess performance against a strategically important objective, target or desired outcome.

The word key matters.

Every metric is not a KPI.

You may have hundreds of data points in your business:

invoices issued;

website visits;

phone calls;

kilometres travelled;

quotes prepared;

employees;

customers;

jobs completed;

hours worked.

These are metrics.

They become meaningful KPIs only when they help leadership understand whether the organisation is progressing towards an important objective or whether intervention is required.

A useful KPI should answer questions such as:

Where are we trying to go?

What drives that outcome?

How will we know whether we are on track?

What constitutes acceptable performance?

Who owns the result?

What will we do when performance moves outside tolerance?

A number without context is merely a number.

A KPI requires:

MEASURE → TARGET → TREND → INTERPRETATION → ACCOUNTABILITY → ACTION

That final word – action – is critical.

There is little point producing beautifully coloured dashboards every month if nobody does anything about what they reveal.

Business Improvement Perth: If You Cannot See Performance, You Cannot Manage It

Many SME owners possess extraordinary intuitive knowledge of their businesses.

They know their customers.

They understand the industry.

They can sense when demand is changing.

They often built the organisation from nothing.

That intuition is enormously valuable.

But intuition has limits.

As businesses grow, complexity increases.

More customers.

More employees.

More products.

More locations.

More vehicles.

More systems.

More debt.

More working capital.

More managers.

More risk.

The owner can no longer personally see everything.

This is where KPIs become increasingly important.

Imagine driving from Perth to Albany with:

no speedometer;

no fuel gauge;

no temperature gauge;

no GPS;

no warning lights.

You might get there.

But why would you deliberately operate that way?

Yet many businesses effectively do precisely this.

They drive a $5 million, $20 million or $50 million enterprise with remarkably little reliable performance information.

Then something goes wrong.

Cash disappears.

Margin collapses.

A major customer leaves.

Sales dry up.

Overtime explodes.

Debtors blow out.

And management asks:

“How did this happen?”

Often, the warning signs were already there.

Nobody was measuring them.

Stop Confusing KPIs with a Monthly P&L

One of the most common mistakes I encounter is believing that receiving monthly financial statements means the business has a KPI framework.

It does not.

Your Profit & Loss Statement is essential.

But much of it tells you what has already happened.

Revenue last month.

Wages last month.

Gross profit last month.

Expenses last month.

EBIT last month.

Useful?

Absolutely.

Sufficient?

Absolutely not.

If June revenue falls dramatically, the underlying problem may have begun months earlier when:

website enquiries declined;

sales calls fell;

quote activity slowed;

conversion rates deteriorated;

the pipeline weakened;

customer retention fell.

By the time the problem reaches the P&L, it may be old news.

This is why sophisticated performance management combines financial and non-financial measures, and critically, leading and lagging indicators.

The Dangerous Difference Between Lagging and Leading Indicators

Lagging indicators tell you what happened

Examples include:

  • revenue;
  • gross profit;
  • EBIT;
  • NPAT;
  • customer churn;
  • employee turnover;
  • incidents;
  • cash generated.

They measure outcomes.

Leading indicators help tell you what may happen

Examples include:

  • qualified sales pipeline;
  • enquiries;
  • proposals issued;
  • conversion rates;
  • forward bookings;
  • customer meetings;
  • utilisation;
  • absenteeism;
  • employee engagement;
  • overdue maintenance;
  • debtor ageing.

This distinction is enormously important.

Suppose your FY27 revenue target is $50 million.

At the end of August, revenue may look perfectly acceptable.

But your qualified sales pipeline has fallen 40%.

Which number matters more?

Both.

Revenue tells you:

We have performed reasonably so far.

Pipeline tells you:

There may be trouble coming.

Good management does not merely ask:

What happened?

It asks:

What is happening now, and what is likely to happen next?

That is where KPIs meet forecasting.

Business Improvement Perth: Start with Strategy, Not a Spreadsheet Full of Numbers

KPIs should flow from strategy.

Not the other way around.

If your strategic objective is:

Increase EBIT margin from 7% to 12%.

Then ask:

What drives EBIT?

Potential drivers may include:

gross margin;

pricing;

labour productivity;

utilisation;

procurement;

overtime;

rework;

overheads;

revenue mix.

Your KPI framework should therefore measure the things that determine whether the strategic objective is likely to be achieved.

If your strategy is to grow revenue from $30 million to $40 million, relevant measures might include:

qualified pipeline;

new customer acquisition;

conversion rate;

customer retention;

average revenue per customer;

sales per salesperson;

capacity utilisation.

If your strategy is operational excellence:

on-time delivery;

cost per job;

labour hours per job;

rework;

equipment utilisation;

downtime;

safety incidents.

The logic should be:

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE → CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS → PERFORMANCE DRIVERS → KPIs → TARGETS → ACCOUNTABILITY → ACTION

This prevents KPI overload.

Measure what matters.

Not everything that moves.

The Business Performance Chain: Drivers, KPIs and Outcomes

I encourage SME leaders to think about performance as a chain.

Consider revenue:

LEADS × CONVERSION RATE × AVERAGE SALE × REPEAT PURCHASES = REVENUE

Revenue is the outcome.

The preceding variables are drivers.

Or consider transport:

AVAILABLE FLEET × UTILISATION × REVENUE PER TRUCK = REVENUE CAPACITY

Or professional services:

CONSULTANTS × BILLABLE HOURS × UTILISATION × HOURLY RATE = REVENUE

Once you understand the economic engine of the business, meaningful KPIs become much easier to identify.

This is where sensitivity analysis becomes powerful.

If conversion improves from 25% to 30%, what happens?

If average selling price increases 3%?

If utilisation rises from 70% to 80%?

If debtor days fall from 55 to 40?

Small movements in key drivers can create disproportionately large changes in profitability and cash flow.

These are your business levers.

Good KPIs tell you whether those levers are moving in the right direction.

Financial KPIs: Revenue Alone Tells You Almost Nothing

I regularly hear:

“We had a record sales month.”

Excellent.

Did you make money?

Revenue without margin can be dangerous.

Depending on the business, important financial KPIs may include:

Revenue

Actual versus:

budget;

prior year;

forecast.

Gross Profit and Gross Margin

A business can grow revenue while becoming less profitable.

EBITDA and EBIT

Measure underlying operating performance appropriately for your business.

Net Profit

What ultimately remains after costs.

Operating Cash Flow

Is accounting profit converting into cash?

Working Capital

How much cash is tied up funding operations?

Debtor Days

Are customers paying on time?

Inventory Turnover

Is cash trapped in slow-moving stock?

Return on Capital

Are the assets employed producing an adequate return?

Debt and Interest Coverage

Can the business comfortably service its obligations?

The important point is not to adopt every ratio ever invented.

Select the measures that reveal the economics of your business.

Sales and Marketing KPIs: Measure the Funnel Before Revenue Disappears

Sales revenue is a lagging indicator.

The sale happened because something occurred earlier.

Marketing generated awareness.

An enquiry arrived.

A salesperson made contact.

A meeting occurred.

A proposal was issued.

A prospect converted.

Therefore, consider measuring the funnel.

Relevant KPIs might include:

  • qualified leads;
  • cost per lead;
  • enquiries;
  • sales meetings;
  • proposals issued;
  • proposal value;
  • conversion rate;
  • qualified pipeline;
  • pipeline coverage;
  • sales cycle length;
  • customer acquisition cost;
  • new customers;
  • repeat business;
  • customer retention;
  • average transaction value.

If revenue falls unexpectedly, do not simply tell salespeople:

“Sell harder.”

Find where the funnel is breaking.

Is it:

insufficient leads?

poor-quality leads?

slow follow-up?

weak conversion?

pricing?

competitor activity?

customer churn?

Measurement turns vague problems into diagnosable problems.

Operational KPIs: Where Margin Is Often Won or Lost

For many SMEs, profitability is determined operationally.

A transport company may measure:

vehicle utilisation;

revenue per truck;

kilometres travelled loaded versus unloaded;

fuel consumption;

driver hours;

maintenance cost;

downtime;

on-time delivery;

safety incidents.

A manufacturing company may measure:

throughput;

yield;

scrap;

rework;

machine utilisation;

downtime;

cost per unit.

A service business may measure:

billable utilisation;

revenue per employee;

job completion time;

rework;

customer complaints.

Why does this matter?

Because a P&L might tell you:

Gross margin declined 4%.

Operational KPIs should help explain:

why.

Perhaps:

overtime increased;

fleet utilisation fell;

empty kilometres rose;

rework increased;

productivity declined;

discounting increased.

Financial results are consequences.

Operational drivers often reveal causes.

People and Leadership KPIs: Your Workforce Is Not an Unmeasurable Variable

People performance is sometimes treated as too “soft” to measure.

It is not.

Depending on the organisation, useful indicators may include:

employee turnover;

voluntary turnover;

absenteeism;

vacancy rates;

time to recruit;

training completion;

safety;

engagement;

internal promotion;

performance review completion;

revenue per employee.

But numbers require interpretation.

High turnover may signal:

poor leadership;

weak culture;

incorrect remuneration;

burnout;

bad recruitment;

lack of development.

The KPI identifies the signal.

Leadership must investigate the cause.

This distinction is crucial:

A KPI is not a diagnosis. It is an indicator that tells you where to look.

Cash-Flow KPIs: Profit Does Not Mean You Can Pay the Bills

One of the most dangerous misconceptions in business is:

“We’re profitable, so cash should be fine.”

Not necessarily.

Cash can disappear into:

debtors;

inventory;

CapEx;

loan repayments;

tax;

rapid growth;

poor billing;

slow collections.

For many SMEs, I would want visibility over:

cash balance;

13-week cash forecast;

operating cash flow;

debtor days;

aged receivables;

creditor days;

inventory days;

working-capital requirement;

debt headroom.

A business can report healthy EBIT and still encounter a liquidity crisis.

That is why cash-flow KPIs deserve the same attention as profit.

WTF – What’s The Forecast? Stop Managing Through the Rear-View Mirror

This brings us to the second half of the title.

WTF: What’s The Forecast?

A budget answers:

What did we originally expect?

Actuals answer:

What happened?

A forecast answers:

Based on what we now know, what do we currently expect to happen?

These are different questions.

Suppose the FY27 budget is:

Revenue: $50 million.

EBIT: $6 million.

By October:

revenue is behind;

a contract has been delayed;

labour costs are higher;

but a major new customer has been won.

Do you continue reporting:

Budget = $50 million

as though nothing changed?

Of course not.

Keep the original budget as the benchmark.

But update the forecast.

Perhaps:

Latest Forecast Revenue: $47.5 million

Latest Forecast EBIT: $5.1 million

Now leadership can act.

Cut discretionary expenditure?

Accelerate sales?

Delay CapEx?

Recruit differently?

Renegotiate pricing?

The forecast converts historical reporting into forward-looking management.

Without it, you are steering primarily through the rear-view mirror.

Dashboards, Governance and Accountability (Business Improvement Perth)

A KPI framework becomes powerful when embedded into governance.

I prefer a concise monthly management or board dashboard.

It should ideally show:

KPI | TARGET | ACTUAL | VARIANCE | TREND | FORECAST | OWNER | ACTION

You do not need 73 pages.

You need clarity.

A simple traffic-light approach can help:

GREEN – on target.

AMBER – emerging concern.

RED – materially off target.

But colour alone is not enough.

For every material variance ask:

Why?

Is it temporary or structural?

What are we doing about it?

Who owns the action?

By when?

Then revisit it next month.

This creates the performance-management cycle:

SET TARGET → MEASURE → ANALYSE → DISCUSS → ACT → FOLLOW UP → REFORECAST

Governance is not merely holding meetings.

It is creating disciplined organisational accountability.

My own career has repeatedly reinforced this. As Managing Director of Standard Bank Retail Collective Investments, I was responsible for strategy, financial performance, budget accountability, governance and board reporting across a national business of approximately 309 employees and 17 executive managers. During that period, assets under management and revenue grew by ~7-fold and market share 5% to 12.8%.

Those outcomes were not achieved by staring at one number called “revenue”.

They required strategy, targets, budgets, measurement, accountability, leadership and disciplined execution.

The KPI Traps That Make Measurement Useless

Too Many KPIs

If your dashboard contains 87 KPIs, you probably have 87 metrics and very few genuinely key indicators.

Focus.

Vanity Metrics

Website traffic may rise 50%.

Wonderful.

Did enquiries rise?

Conversions?

Revenue?

Profit?

Measure outcomes and drivers that matter.

KPIs Without Targets

“Gross margin is 31%.”

Good or bad?

Without context, who knows?

Compare against:

target;

budget;

history;

benchmark;

forecast.

Lagging Indicators Only

Financial reporting alone may reveal problems too late.

Include leading indicators.

No Ownership

Every important KPI should have someone accountable for performance.

Measuring Without Acting

This is perhaps the worst failure.

If the same red KPI appears month after month with no meaningful action, you do not have performance management.

You have decorative reporting.

Gaming the Numbers

Poorly designed KPIs can drive unintended behaviour.

Reward sales purely for revenue and they may discount excessively.

Reward operations purely for cost reduction and service quality may collapse.

Measures must be balanced.

Practical Recommendations for SME Owners and Leaders

1. Start with Your Strategy

What are your three-to-five-year goals and FY27 priorities?

2. Identify Your Business Model Drivers

What actually creates:

revenue;

margin;

cash;

customer value?

3. Select 10–20 Truly Important KPIs

The precise number depends on complexity, but resist overload.

4. Balance Financial and Non-Financial Measures

Do not rely solely on the P&L.

5. Include Leading and Lagging Indicators

Measure both outcomes and predictors.

6. Set Targets

Every KPI needs context.

7. Assign Ownership

One accountable person wherever practical.

8. Establish a Monthly Dashboard

Keep it concise and decision-focused.

9. Add Forecasting

Budget versus actual is not enough.

Include the latest forecast.

10. Use Sensitivity Analysis

Understand which variables most strongly influence performance.

11. Link KPIs to Monthly Governance

Discuss exceptions, causes and actions.

12. Review the KPIs Regularly

Strategy changes.

Business models evolve.

Your KPIs should evolve too.

Key Takeaways

  • KPIs are not every metric you can measure; they are the few indicators most critical to strategic and operational performance.
  • Financial statements largely explain what has already happened.
  • Leading indicators help management anticipate what may happen next.
  • KPIs should flow directly from strategy and the economic drivers of the business.
  • Revenue alone is a dangerously incomplete measure of business health.
  • Financial, sales, operational, people and cash-flow indicators should be considered together.
  • A KPI identifies a signal; leadership still needs to diagnose the underlying cause.
  • Budget, actual and forecast answer three different management questions.
  • Dashboards create value only when they drive discussion, accountability and action.
  • If you have no meaningful KPIs and no reliable forecast, you may be running your business on WTFs: What’s The Forecast?

Frequently Asked Questions About KPIs and Business Performance

What does KPI mean?

KPI stands for Key Performance Indicator. It is a measurable indicator used to assess performance against an important strategic, financial or operational objective.

What is the difference between a KPI and a metric?

A metric measures something. A KPI measures something sufficiently important to indicate progress towards a critical business objective or outcome.

How many KPIs should an SME have?

There is no universal number, but leadership should focus on a manageable set of genuinely important indicators rather than overwhelming itself with dozens of metrics.

What are examples of financial KPIs?

Revenue, gross margin, EBITDA, EBIT, operating cash flow, debtor days, working capital, return on capital and debt-service measures.

What are leading KPIs?

Leading indicators provide information about activities or conditions that may influence future results, such as sales pipeline, enquiries, utilisation and customer activity.

What are lagging KPIs?

Lagging indicators measure outcomes that have already occurred, including revenue, profit, customer churn and employee turnover.

Why are KPIs important for SMEs?

They give leadership objective visibility over performance, highlight emerging problems, support accountability and enable earlier corrective action.

Should KPIs be linked to strategy?

Yes. The most useful KPIs measure the factors most critical to achieving strategic objectives.

What is a KPI dashboard?

A KPI dashboard presents key measures, targets, actual results, variances, trends and sometimes forecasts in a concise format for management review.

How often should KPIs be reviewed?

Many business-critical KPIs should be reviewed monthly, although some operational indicators may require weekly or daily monitoring.

What is the difference between a budget and a forecast?

A budget records the organisation’s original financial expectations and targets. A forecast updates expectations based on current information.

Should an SME use a rolling forecast?

For many SMEs, yes. Rolling forecasts can improve forward visibility and allow leadership to respond earlier to changing conditions.

Why is revenue not enough as a KPI?

Revenue does not reveal profitability, margin, cash conversion, customer concentration, working-capital requirements or operational efficiency.

What happens if a business has too many KPIs?

Management attention becomes diluted, reporting becomes cumbersome and genuinely important signals may disappear among irrelevant data.

Can KPIs improve accountability?

Yes, when each important measure has a clear target, accountable owner and agreed corrective actions where performance falls short.

Conclusion: No KPIs? Stop Asking What Happened and Start Asking WTF – What’s The Forecast? (Business Improvement Perth)

There is a fundamental difference between being busy and performing well.

Your people can be flat out.

Phones ringing.

Trucks moving.

Invoices being issued.

Salespeople meeting customers.

Everyone staying late.

And the business can still be heading in the wrong direction.

Activity is not performance.

Revenue is not profit.

Profit is not cash.

Growth is not necessarily value creation.

And a bank balance is not a management information system.

Good leadership requires visibility.

You need to know:

Where are we?

Where should we be?

Why is there a variance?

Where are we heading?

What needs to change?

Who is responsible?

That is what a well-designed KPI framework should provide.

Not bureaucracy.

Not a 73-page management pack nobody reads.

Not hundreds of meaningless statistics.

A focused set of measures that enables leadership to understand the business, identify emerging problems, make better decisions and hold people, including themselves, accountable.

I have seen throughout my career that disciplined measurement works best when combined with strategy, governance and leadership. My professional background has encompassed institutional investment management, financial analysis, executive leadership, strategic planning, board governance, business transformation, M&A and advisory work, including responsibility for performance analysis, financial management and strategic decision-making across organisations ranging from start-ups to large national businesses.

That experience has reinforced one lesson repeatedly:

The numbers do not run the business. People do. But people make far better decisions when they have the right numbers.

So gather your leadership team.

Put your current dashboard on the table.

If you do not have one, that itself tells you something.

Ask:

What are the 10–20 numbers we absolutely need to understand whether this business is healthy and moving towards its strategic objectives?

Then ask:

Which are leading indicators?

Which are lagging?

What are our targets?

Who owns each one?

What is trending negatively?

What are we doing about it?

And finally:

WTF?

What’s The Forecast?

Because if you cannot answer that question convincingly, you may know what happened yesterday—

but you are not yet managing tomorrow.

For SME owners and leadership teams in Perth and across Western Australia, an experienced Business Advisor, Fractional CEO or Non-Executive Chairman can help establish practical KPI dashboards, management reporting, forecasting, governance and accountability frameworks that turn business data into better decisions and measurable performance improvement.

Stop managing by gut feel, bank balance and crossed fingers.

Know what matters.

Measure it.

Understand it.

Forecast it.

Act on it.

And when somebody asks WTF?

Make sure everyone around the boardroom table knows exactly what you mean.

Ready to Strengthen Your Leadership and Grow Your Business?

If you’re looking to strengthen your leadership capability, improve strategic execution, develop your management team or implement stronger governance, experienced external leadership can provide significant value.

As an experienced Fractional CEO Perth, Business Advisor Perth, Business Coach Perth and Chairman, I work alongside SME owners, family businesses and leadership teams across Western Australia to improve performance, strengthen governance and deliver sustainable business growth.

If you’d like to discuss how experienced executive leadership can help your business reach its next stage of growth, I’d welcome the opportunity to have a confidential conversation.

How Doug Verley Can Help

If you are an SME owner, founder or family business leader seeking support with business growth, strategy, leadership development or governance, explore my services:

Need Practical Business Advice?

Book a Free Strategy Call with Doug Verley.

If your business needs clearer strategy, stronger leadership, improved accountability or practical business advisory support, I welcome the opportunity to speak with you.

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